AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning after USDA showed little improvement in crop conditions over the past week. They settled 1 1/4 to 2 3/4 cents higher in most contracts on Monday. Preliminary open interest showed rolling out of the July contract and some net new buying in the 2017 crop contracts. Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed that 4% of the corn crop was silking, behind the average and last year’s 5%. Condition ratings were steady across the board with last week, with the Brugler500 rating at 369. The trade had been looking for an improvement. Looking ahead to this Friday’s 2017 Planted Acreage report, analysts on average are expecting 89.903 million acres were planted this spring, slightly down from March’s intentions number. China is expected to sell 1.18 MMT of corn from state reserves on Thursday, with an additional 2.43 MMT on Friday.

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 8 to 9 cents higher after closing mostly 2 to 3 1/2 cents in the green on Monday. July 17 soy meal was up 50 cents, with soy oil down 9 points in the front month. US soybean emergence is even with last year at 94%, and ahead of the average of 91%. This week’s report indicated that 9% of the crop was blooming as of Sunday, ahead of the average at 7% and last year’s 8%. Condition ratings for this last week dropped 1% good/excellent to 66%, as the Brugler500 index is now at 366, down 2 points from last week. Traders are projecting soybean acreage to show a slight increase over the March number, at 89.750 million acres, with a range of 88.466-91.0 million acres in the published estimates.

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher in CHI and KC futures this morning after finishing with mixed trade on Monday. MPLS spring wheat is up 5 to 8 cents. KC and CBT contracts were in the red by 10 1/4-11 1/4 cents and 6-9 cents respectively on Monday. MPLS was fractionally to 2 1/2 cents higher. The US winter wheat crop was 41% harvested as of Sunday, 1% behind last year but 2% ahead of the average. Conditions ratings were even with last week at 49% g/ex, as the Brugler500 index rose 2 points on higher excellent ratings. The spring wheat crop is 26% headed, ahead of the average of 35% but well behind last year’s 52%. Condition ratings were down 1% to 40% good/ex, with a Brugler500 rating of 309 points. Analysts are expecting the Planted Acreage report on Friday to show all wheat at 46 million acres, with winter at 32.83 mill ac, spring at 11.2 mac, and durum at 2 mac.

Cattle

Live cattle futures were $2.20 to $3.00 higher on Monday, with August limit up. Preliminary open interest showed some short covering in the June and August contracts. Feeder cattle futures posted limit gains in the three nearby contracts. Both Live and Feeder contracts will have expanded limits today. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.25 on June 23 at $145.84. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the Monday afternoon report, with choice boxes down $1.18 cents at $238.57. Select was 94 cents higher, with an average of $217.66. The Ch/Se spread is now down to $20.91. During the peak demand period it had been over $30. Estimated FI cattle slaughter for Monday was 117,000 head, 3,000 above last week and 6,000 greater than last year.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are currently 42.5 cents to $1.225 higher in the nearby contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/22 was up another 87 cents to $90.17. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 20 cents in the afternoon report, with a weighted average of $101.35. The picnic and rib were the only cuts lower. The national base hog carcass price was 2 cents higher with a weighted average of $85.82 in the afternoon report. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 435,000 head on Monday, 11,000 more than the previous week and 9,000 head above last year.

Cotton

Cotton futures are 12 to 25 points higher in the early going, with October down 4. They reversed early losses to end Monday with gains of 1 to 103 points in most contracts. The Crop progress report released after the close showed planting 98% complete, with 34% of the crop squared, vs. 28% last year and the average of 30%. This week’s report indicated that 7% of the crop has set bolls compared to 6% last year and the average of 5%. Overall ratings dropped 4% g/e to 57%. The Brugler500 index is at 357, down 7 points from last week. Analysts are estimating that the planted acreage report will show a slight increase from March, at 12.278 million acres. On Monday, China sold 23,700 MT of cotton from state reserves, totaling 78.64% of the total 30,200 MT offered.


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